7/24/2008

[转载]二十四国民调,中国人最乐观



●86%的中国人肯定国家的前进方向
●82%的中国人对国民经济感到满意
●60%的中国人满意工作和家庭收入
●96%的中国人相信北京奥运能成功


调查显示,中国乐观情绪高涨

美国《国际先驱论坛报》7月22日报道

记者布赖恩·诺尔顿发自华盛顿

受到经济连年飞速增长以及近在眼前的奥运会的鼓舞,中国人对国民经济和国家的前进方向极其乐观。根据最近的调查结果,中国在上述两项排名中都位列24国之首。对于即将在8月8日开幕的奥运会的前景,他们几乎全部持乐观态度。

然而,这项调查还发现,中国人对经济飞速增长所需付出的代价越来越感到担忧。这项调查是皮尤世界民情项目的一部分。受访者最担心的是不断上涨的物价——96%的受访者对此表示担忧。腐败和环境日益恶化也困扰着大多数中国人。

根据在西藏骚乱后、四川地震前对中国成年人进行的这项调查,总的来说,中国人对国家的满意度近几年来迅速提高。

负责此次调查的皮尤研究中心主任安德鲁·科胡特说:“这显然是一个自认为优越的国家,从而导致人民对全国大事非常满意,不过他们仍在个人层面上奋斗。”

86%的中国受访者说,他们满意国家的前进方向,比排名第二的澳大利亚高出整整25个百分点。而2002年这一比例只有48%。同时,82%的中国人对国民经济感到满意,2002年则为52%。

相比之下,只有23%的美国受访者说,他们满意国家的前进方向。只有20%的受访者认为美国经济运行良好。俄罗斯人对国家前进方向的满意度排名第三,为54%。西班牙排名第四,为50%。欧洲其余主要国家的人民则相当不满意。英法德三国中,表示满意的人只有三成。

中国的受访者似乎沉醉于经济连续5年以超过10%的速度增长以及寄托在北京奥运会上的雄心壮志。

60%中国人满意自己的工作,对家庭收入感到满意的比例也在60%左右。皮尤调查报告说,这一比例与“中国仍然不高的人均收入水平相符”。

然而,华盛顿战略与国际问题研究中心的中国问题专家梅利莎·墨菲说,大多数中国人对“业已取得的成就怀有真正的自豪感”。

一路上扬的中国经济使4月份的粮食价格同比上涨了22%,96%的中国受访者把不断上涨的物价看作他们最为担忧的问题。令他们担忧的问题还有:贫富差距(89%)、官员腐败(78%)、空气污染(74%)、失业(68%)和水污染(66%)。

对收入差距的担忧十分普遍,不论是富人还是穷人、老人还是年轻人、高学历还是低学历,他们的担忧程度都是一样的。

尽管如此,有70%的人说自由市场经济令大多数人更富裕,这一比例与6年前相同。

墨菲说,对中国领导人而言,人们担忧收入差距是好消息。她说:“(中国领导人)一直在试图改变中国的发展道路,从追求GDP迅速增长——让一些人先富起来——转变为更加平等、持续性更强的发展。”

65%的中国人说,政府在重大民生问题上干得不错。不过在经济发展没有东部地区快的西部和中部省份,对政府的支持率略低一些。

只有1%的中国受访者说,他们听说过中国产品出现了很多问题。中国媒体几乎不报道产品召回事件。

相比之下,针对奥运会的报道铺天盖地——越来越多的中国人说,也许有点太多了。34%的受访者说,中国人对奥运会的关注太多了,而2006年为25%。在北京这种情绪更为明显,将近半数居民这么认为。

不过人们怀着强烈的乐观情绪认为,奥运会将改善中国在世界上的形象。

墨菲说:“(中国人)对奥运会的期望之高令我有些惊讶。”

96%的受访者说,他们相信中国举办的这次奥运会将被世人认为是成功的。75%的中国人期待中国在北京奥运会上位列奖牌榜第一。

墨菲说,中国为奥运会所做的动员在西方有些无法想象。她说:“我无法想象伦敦的出租车司机会按照规定穿着制服,为2012年奥运会学习100个汉语词汇。”

尽管中国人期待奥运会将改善中国的全球形象,但他们仍非常怀疑一些国家。七成中国人不喜欢日本,四成的人认为日本是敌人。大约三成的人认为美国是敌人。至于印度是敌是友,两种看法的人大约各占一半。

中国人的自信不断增强,一些人似乎认为英语世界的重要性正相对下降。77%的中国人认为,“儿童需要学习英语才能在当今世界取得成功”,比2002年的92%有了大幅下降。

此次调查是在3月28日至4月19日进行的,使用16种方言对全中国3212名受访者进行了面对面的调查采访。样本误差为正负两个百分点。其余各国调查的样本规模和误差有所差异。

来源:《参考消息》 2008-07-24
题:二十四国民调,中国人最乐观
http://ckxx.org.cn/ckxx/ckxx20080724/

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英文原文:

Optimism high in China, survey shows

By Brian Knowlton

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

WASHINGTON: Buoyed by years of extraordinary growth and with the promise of the Olympic Games just ahead, the Chinese hold strikingly positive views of their national economy and of the direction their country is heading, ranking first in both measures among 24 countries recently surveyed. They were almost universally optimistic about prospects for the Games, which open Aug. 8.

But the survey, part of the Pew Global Attitudes Project, also found rising concern in China about the corollary costs of rapid growth. Respondents' biggest concern - expressed by 96 percent - was rising prices. Corruption and environmental degradation also worried majorities of Chinese.

Over all, however, Chinese satisfaction with the country soared in recent years, according to a survey of Chinese adults after the onset of civil unrest over Tibet and before the May 12 earthquake in southwestern China.

"This is clearly a nation that sees itself as ascendant, and that leads to tremendous satisfaction with the way things are going nationwide, even though the people are still struggling on an individual level," said Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, which conducted the survey.

Eighty-six percent of the Chinese surveyed said they were content with the country's direction, up from 48 percent in 2002 and a full 25 percentage points higher than the next highest country, Australia. And 82 percent of Chinese were satisfied with their national economy, up from 52 percent.

By comparison, only 23 percent of Americans surveyed said they were satisfied with the country's direction and only 20 percent said the U.S. economy was good.

Russians were the third most-satisfied people with their country's direction, at 54 percent.

Except for Spain, which placed fourth at 50 percent, the peoples of major European countries were far from content. Only about 3 in 10 British, French and Germans expressed satisfaction.

The Chinese respondents, somewhat less satisfied with their own lives than with national conditions, appeared to be basking in the glow of an economy that has seen growth rates in excess of 10 percent for each of the past five years, and of the grand ambitions embodied in Beijing playing host to the Olympic Games.

About 6 in 10 Chinese were satisfied with their jobs, and about the same number with their household incomes. The Pew report said these levels were "in line with the still modest level of per capita income there."

But most Chinese "feel a genuine sense of great pride in what has been achieved," said Melissa Murphy, a China specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

The roaring Chinese economy sent food prices soaring 22 percent in April, compared with the year before, and 96 percent of the Chinese surveyed cited rising prices as their leading concern. Among their other concerns: the gap between rich and poor (89 percent), corrupt officials (78 percent), air pollution (74 percent), unemployment (68 percent) and water pollution (66 percent).

Concerns about the income gap were widespread, found equally among rich and poor, old and young, and college-educated and less educated.

Still, 70 percent said that most people are better off in a free-market economy, unchanged from six years ago.

Murphy said the concerns about the income gap were good news for the leadership of President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, "which has been trying to steer China's development path from one of pursuing rapid GDP growth - letting some get rich first - to more equitable and sustainable growth."

Sixty-five percent of the Chinese said the government was doing a good job on the issues most important to them, though support was somewhat lower in the western and central provinces, which have not enjoyed the rapid growth of eastern regions.

Amid heightened scrutiny over flawed or contaminated Chinese exports, the survey provided a reminder that the country's largely state-controlled media still keep a lid on news of negative developments.

Only 1 percent of Chinese respondents said they had heard a lot about problems with Chinese-made products.

The Chinese media reported very little about the product recalls. There were posters around the country late last year urging people to take food safety seriously and report any problems. But few ordinary Chinese understood what the posters were hinting at.

In contrast, the coming Games have received extensive coverage - perhaps too much, a growing number of Chinese say.

Thirty-four percent of those surveyed, up from 25 percent in 2006, said people in China were paying too much attention to the Games. That feeling was even stronger in Beijing, shared by nearly half of residents in the capital.

But people's optimism that the Games would improve China's image in the world was strong, apparently little affected by the pro-Tibet and anti-China protests around the globe surrounding the transit of the Olympic torch.

"I am a little surprised at how high the expectations are for the Olympics," said Murphy, noting that 96 percent of respondents said they believed China's role in the Games would prove successful. "It might have some officials in Beijing worried about the consequences if the Games are not."

Seventy-five percent of Chinese expect their country to win the most medals in Beijing. At the 2004 Summer Games, in Athens, China trailed the United States and Russia in the overall medal count, though it placed second in gold medals, trailing the U.S. team by 36 to 32.

Murphy said China's mobilization for the Games was something unimaginable in a Western country. "I cannot imagine London taxi drivers complying with instructions to wear uniforms and learn 100 words of Chinese for the 2012 Games," she said.

While the Chinese expect the Games to improve their global image, they still have deep suspicions about some other countries. Seven in 10 had unfavorable opinions of Japan, and 4 in 10 considered it an enemy; about 3 in 10 saw the United States as an enemy; and opinion was evenly divided on whether India was a partner or an enemy.

As a sense of self-confidence grows in China, some appear to see the English-speaking world as of relatively declining importance.

While 77 percent agreed that "children need to learn English to succeed in the world today," this was down substantially from 92 percent in 2002.

The poll was based on 3,212 face-to-face interviews that were conducted in 16 dialects from March 28 to April 19 across China, though disproportionately in urban areas. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus two percentage points. Sample sizes and error margins in the other countries varied.

David Barboza contributed reporting from Beijing.

Copyright © 2008 the International Herald Tribune All rights reserved

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/07/22/asia/poll.php?page=1

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Pew Poll: The Chinese Celebrate Their Roaring Economy, As They Struggle With Its Costs
http://fulue.com/2008/07/pew-poll-chinese-celebrate-their.html

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