12/10/2008

澳洲央行行长:中国GDP增速已经低于8%

(福禄祯祥12月10日译)澳大利亚中央银行(RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA,澳大利亚储备银行)行长格兰-斯蒂文斯(Glenn Stevens)9日称,中国经济放慢的速度超乎任何人预期,中国的GDP增速很有可能已经低于8%了。

斯蒂文斯是在澳大利亚商业经济学家年度晚宴(Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner)上发表讲话时透露这一讯息的。

澳大利亚央行的网站上发布了斯蒂文斯讲话的文字稿和现场录音。我摘出关于中国的内容翻译如下:

金融危机的影响日益显现,它正向实体经济扩展。中国经济的命运愈发重要,尤其是对澳大利亚和我们地区的其他国家来说更是如此。过去几个月对实体经济最重大的打击不是在延续美国经济的疲软,而是中国经济超乎任何人预期的急速放慢。我们自己的评估显示,今年十月份以前的四个月里,中国的工业生产一直在下滑。这可能是受到奥运的影响,但也不完全如此。某种程度上是中国向多数国家出口衰退的反映。但是,其他的影响也还存在。我不确定许多的经济预测已经注意到了这些。很有可能中国的GDP增速已经明显低于8%了,这也体现在对2009年的各种预测当中。

由于经济曾经明显过热,中国当局过去一直在寻求放缓经济的办法,但是现在的政策迅速掉头,转而刺激经济。因此,中国经济一年后看起来将会比现在强劲。当然,重要的是选对了路子——尤其是刺激内需。

中国的放缓也许是冲击现实的三个因素之一,因为近几个月全世界的经济活动都在衰退中。


英文原文:

While the prominence of financial events has been clear, there has also been a set of ‘interesting’ events in the real economy unfolding at the same time. The fortunes of the Chinese economy are increasingly important, particularly for Australia and other countries in our time zone. The most striking real economic fact of the past several months is not continued US economic weakness, but that China’s economy has slowed much more quickly than anyone had forecast. Our own estimates suggest that Chinese industrial production probably declined over the four months to October. Some of this might be attributable to the effects of the Olympics but surely not much. Some of it reflects the weakening in Chinese exports to major countries. But more than that seems to have been occurring. I am not sure that many economic forecasters have fully appreciated this yet. There is every chance that the rate of growth of China’s GDP is currently noticeably below the 8 per cent pace that is embodied in various forecasts for 2009.

The Chinese authorities, having sought a slowing of their economy after it was clearly overheating, are now moving policies quickly in an expansionary direction. So there is a good chance that China’s economy will be looking stronger in a year’s time than it does today. It is important, though, that this is done in the right way – specifically by boosting domestic demand.

China’s slowing may be part of a third striking fact, namely, the simultaneity of the weakening in economic activity around the world during recent months.


【专题】国际金融危机 $ 覆巢之下复有完卵?

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