12/10/2008

呼声微弱却具排山倒海之势

(福禄祯祥12月10日文)12月1日世界艾滋病日,自我宣传在艾滋病防治方面取得的巨大成就。12月10日世界R权日,又有了一次吹嘘在改善R权方面进展重大的机会。原本是用来警醒世人世间所存在的问题的日子,总是被当成喜庆的节日来过。把艾滋病日弄成艾滋病节,把R权日弄成R权节。就好比忌日当生日来过,完全是颠倒黑白,愚弄民众。

好在有志士仁人能正本清源,他们宁肯牺牲自身也要发出正义的呼声。在强权的压制下,这呼声尽管微弱得只有少数人能听到,听者中也只有少数人敢于作出积极的回应,但毕竟声音还是发出来了,影响一个是一个。

微弱的呼声再次提醒人们,人之所以为人,是因为享有崇高的尊严,而非不可一世的权力、价值连城的财富或高高在上的地位。权力、财富和地位可以通过剥削、掠夺和阴谋获取,唯独尊严只有采用正当的方式才能得到。尊严不只来自自我的肯定,也来自别人发自内心的认同。

为了争取做人的尊严,已经有敢为天下先者,也有一些响应者,但毕竟不多。号召者和积极响应者毫无疑问都是猛士。仍在沉默或无动于衷者也不一定都是懦夫。没有反应不代表胆怯,也许只是没有做好响应的准备。等更人准备好了,只要一听到呼声,马上就能启程上路。

呼声尽管微弱,但凡听到者都已经预感到了它排山倒海的威力。正因为它所具有的强大威力,因此才会遭受巨大的压制。相信这呼声总有一天能被所有人听到并获得积极响应,是因为,人人都需要尊严。

尽管暂时无法收获,但只要播下了种子,就要悉心照料这片土地。即使果实被别人抢夺了,也不要怪罪种子、土地和自己的付出,因为那不是它们的罪过。要怪只能怪自己没有守护好这片土地,才遭到邪恶的侵袭。(文/福禄祯祥http://www.fulue.com/

再次起用fulue.net

fulue.com可能是又被封了

澳洲央行行长:中国GDP增速已经低于8%

(福禄祯祥12月10日译)澳大利亚中央银行(RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA,澳大利亚储备银行)行长格兰-斯蒂文斯(Glenn Stevens)9日称,中国经济放慢的速度超乎任何人预期,中国的GDP增速很有可能已经低于8%了。

斯蒂文斯是在澳大利亚商业经济学家年度晚宴(Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner)上发表讲话时透露这一讯息的。

澳大利亚央行的网站上发布了斯蒂文斯讲话的文字稿和现场录音。我摘出关于中国的内容翻译如下:

金融危机的影响日益显现,它正向实体经济扩展。中国经济的命运愈发重要,尤其是对澳大利亚和我们地区的其他国家来说更是如此。过去几个月对实体经济最重大的打击不是在延续美国经济的疲软,而是中国经济超乎任何人预期的急速放慢。我们自己的评估显示,今年十月份以前的四个月里,中国的工业生产一直在下滑。这可能是受到奥运的影响,但也不完全如此。某种程度上是中国向多数国家出口衰退的反映。但是,其他的影响也还存在。我不确定许多的经济预测已经注意到了这些。很有可能中国的GDP增速已经明显低于8%了,这也体现在对2009年的各种预测当中。

由于经济曾经明显过热,中国当局过去一直在寻求放缓经济的办法,但是现在的政策迅速掉头,转而刺激经济。因此,中国经济一年后看起来将会比现在强劲。当然,重要的是选对了路子——尤其是刺激内需。

中国的放缓也许是冲击现实的三个因素之一,因为近几个月全世界的经济活动都在衰退中。


英文原文:

While the prominence of financial events has been clear, there has also been a set of ‘interesting’ events in the real economy unfolding at the same time. The fortunes of the Chinese economy are increasingly important, particularly for Australia and other countries in our time zone. The most striking real economic fact of the past several months is not continued US economic weakness, but that China’s economy has slowed much more quickly than anyone had forecast. Our own estimates suggest that Chinese industrial production probably declined over the four months to October. Some of this might be attributable to the effects of the Olympics but surely not much. Some of it reflects the weakening in Chinese exports to major countries. But more than that seems to have been occurring. I am not sure that many economic forecasters have fully appreciated this yet. There is every chance that the rate of growth of China’s GDP is currently noticeably below the 8 per cent pace that is embodied in various forecasts for 2009.

The Chinese authorities, having sought a slowing of their economy after it was clearly overheating, are now moving policies quickly in an expansionary direction. So there is a good chance that China’s economy will be looking stronger in a year’s time than it does today. It is important, though, that this is done in the right way – specifically by boosting domestic demand.

China’s slowing may be part of a third striking fact, namely, the simultaneity of the weakening in economic activity around the world during recent months.


【专题】国际金融危机 $ 覆巢之下复有完卵?

向零八的猛士致敬

BBC: Chinese police arrest protesters 9/12

AFP: Abuses persist as UN rights declaration turns 60 10/12

AP: China marks Human Rights Day with arrests, rights' scandal 10/12

TIME: A New Call for Chinese Democracy 10/12

Human Rights Watch: China: Retaliation for Signatories of Rights Charter 10/12

NYT: On Rights Day, China Hails Gains and Detains Protesters 10/12

Reuters: China says doubts Tibet torture report 11/12

Reuters: Torture seen widespread in Tibet 10/12

AP: Lawyer says critic in China still in detention 11/12

VOA: Chinese Dissident's Daughter Reports on Prison Visit 11/12

Reuters: China detains dissidents ahead of human rights day

饱醉豚:http://www.bullog.cn/blogs/baozuitun/archives/238654.aspx

莫之许:http://www.bullog.cn/blogs/mozhixu/archives/238882.aspx (已删)

又增+了一批

海外华人学者的声明
莫之许:
http://www.bullog.cn/blogs/mozhixu/archives/239588.aspx