9/14/2009

施蒂格利茨:美国摆脱危机了吗?

来源:9月14日《参考消息》题:施蒂格利茨:美经济脱困还需四年

【法国《新观察家》周刊9月9日一期文章】题:美国摆脱危机了吗?

作者:诺贝尔经济学奖得主约瑟夫-施蒂格利茨

有些人宣称目前这场自大萧条以来最为严重的定机已经过去,他们错了:危机的影响恐伯还会持续很长,时间,即使最糟糕的时期已经过去。

从技术上讲,在库存突然减少的作用下,经济会重新出现正增长。所以我不相信近期会出现稳固的经济复苏。奥巴马的经济刺激计划打算两年拿出8000亿美元的国家财政支出。但是经济刺激计划将拿出一半的金额来填补各州的赤字。对大多数人来说,摆脱衰退主要意味着找到作。然而即使刺激计划预计要增加360万个就业岗位,仍然无法弥被2008年损失的就业岗位,更无法向新迸入劳动市场的人提供工作机会。所以失业状况会长期恶化,企业则需要更长时间才能用上多余的生产能力。我感觉,还需要四年我们才能勉强走出危机。

最先爆发危机的金融体系并未摆脱险境。某些金融机构的破产使幸存的金融机构迅速恢复赢利:拿到利率极率极低的公共资金后,再以较高的利率贷出。但是这些利润主要是通过市场活动获得的,因此属于投机行为,跟贷款给生产领域没有任何关系。奥巴马政府没有解散过于庞大的银行并限制他们进行冒险交易,而是步入歧途,去补偿那些剥削弱者、摧毁互助制度并加剧社会贫困的银行家们。如果政府无视市场,听信银行家们的话,相信他们已经采取了适当的措施,那么我们还会再次面临新的危机!

在经历了1989年-2007年这段特殊时期之后,美国现在终于看到了自己的局限:以美国消费者疯犯消费和对金融体系的信任为基础的基本模式已经过时,美国没有了第一大资金来源,美元的至尊地位受到了质疑,中产阶级的收入每况愈下。美国仍将长期保持世界最富裕国家的地位,并始终在世界经济治理中发用核心作用。但是他们能将自己的法则强加给世界约时代已经一去不复返了。

~~~

Stiglitz Says Bank Problems Bigger Than Pre-Lehman

By Mark Deen and David Tweed

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize- winning economist, said the U.S. has failed to fix the underlying problems of its banking system after the credit crunch and the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

“In the U.S. and many other countries, the too-big-to-fail banks have become even bigger,” Stiglitz said in an interview yesterday in Paris. “The problems are worse than they were in 2007 before the crisis.”

...

Stiglitz gave the interview before presenting a report to French President Nicolas Sarkozy that urged world leaders to drop an obsession for focusing on gross domestic product in favor of broader measures of prosperity.

“GDP has increasingly become used as a measure of societal well being, and changes in the structure of the economy and our society have made it an increasingly poor one,” Stiglitz said.

Sarkozy Agrees

Sarkozy said today in a speech in Paris that focusing on GDP as the main measure of prosperity had helped to trigger the financial crisis. He ordered France’s statistics agency to integrate the findings of Stiglitz’s study into its economic analysis.

...

No comments:

Post a Comment